Chouteau County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Chouteau County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.5, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Chouteau County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 39.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $457K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 9.12 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $172K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chouteau County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Chouteau County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2024.
Among 56 Montana counties, Chouteau County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 9.12 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $172K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 28.71 / yr | $106K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.29 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 65.35 / yr | $113K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.17 / yr | $913 |
| Lightning | Low | 23.98 / yr | $151K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $45K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $35K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $73K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.80 / yr | $58K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.98 / yr | $21K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chouteau County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| February 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Ice Jams |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chouteau County?
Chouteau County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chouteau County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Medium, $457K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $172K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chouteau County compare to other Montana counties?
Chouteau County ranks #25 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chouteau County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Chouteau County since 1986, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chouteau County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.