Missoula County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Missoula County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.0, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $57M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Missoula County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $202K in expected annual loss and about 2.07 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 3.44 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $57M in expected annual loss for a population of 118K.
Beyond physical exposure, Missoula County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Missoula County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 8 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Missoula County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $7M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $202K |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.44 / yr | $14M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.20 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $10M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.19 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 50.85 / yr | $331K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | Medium | 21.74 / yr | $605K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $675K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.27 / yr | $292K |
| Drought | Very Low | 28.49 / yr | $1K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.45 / yr | $67K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $101K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Missoula County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (8), Severe Storm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2024 | Straight-Line Winds | Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2017 | Fire | Rice Ridge Fire |
| August 2017 | Fire | Lolo Peak Fire |
| August 2013 | Fire | Lolo Creek Fire Complex |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2007 | Fire | Black Cat Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Missoula County?
Missoula County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Missoula County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $7M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $202K EAL), Cold Wave (High, $14M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Missoula County compare to other Montana counties?
Missoula County ranks #6 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Missoula County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Missoula County since 1974, most often 8 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Missoula County's $57M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.