Grundy County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Grundy County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 27.9, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Grundy County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 27.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 16.02 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.21 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $3K in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grundy County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Grundy County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 12 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Grundy County ranks #89 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 16.02 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.95 / yr | $520K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.47 / yr | $769K |
| Hail | Low | 4.08 / yr | $199K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $32K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.84 / yr | $104K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $68K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.22 / yr | $235K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.58 / yr | $22K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $11K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grundy County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Severe Ice Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grundy County?
Grundy County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 27.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grundy County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Tornado (Low, $2M EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $3K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grundy County compare to other Missouri counties?
Grundy County ranks #89 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grundy County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Grundy County since 1976, most often 12 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grundy County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.