Adair County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 29th
Adair County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.7, 29th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Adair County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 28.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 29th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Adair County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $40K in expected annual loss and about 0.46 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $928K in expected annual loss and about 7.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Adair County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Adair County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Adair County ranks #88 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.46 / yr | $40K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.27 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.84 / yr | $928K |
| Hail | Low | 3.39 / yr | $440K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.33 / yr | $666K |
| Drought | Low | 11.48 / yr | $161K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.00 / yr | $238K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $37K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $177K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.58 / yr | $442K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.05 / yr | $23K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $17K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Adair County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Severe Ice Storm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Adair County?
Adair County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 29th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Adair County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $40K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $928K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Adair County compare to other Missouri counties?
Adair County ranks #88 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Adair County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Adair County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Adair County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.