Forrest County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Forrest County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.1, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $33M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Forrest County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.59 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $33M in expected annual loss for a population of 78K.
Beyond physical exposure, Forrest County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Forrest County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 18 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Forrest County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.55 / yr | $8M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.59 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.20 / yr | $7M |
| Lightning | High | 81.51 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 12.05 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $414K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.20 / yr | $681K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.61 / yr | $11M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $629K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.70 / yr | $130K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 1.63 / yr | $83K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $1K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.74 / yr | $639K |
| Drought | Low | 14.58 / yr | $71K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Forrest County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (18), Severe Storm (6), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Zeta |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Forrest County?
Forrest County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Forrest County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $8M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Forrest County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Forrest County ranks #15 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Forrest County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Forrest County since 1969, most often 18 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Forrest County's $33M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.