Bolivar County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Bolivar County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.8, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bolivar County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Bolivar County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $942K in expected annual loss and about 13.03 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 18.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bolivar County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Bolivar County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Bolivar County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Medium | 13.03 / yr | $942K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.26 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $213K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.71 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Low | 2.73 / yr | $319K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $254K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $497K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.26 / yr | $742K |
| Lightning | Low | 62.59 / yr | $169K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $273 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.26 / yr | $15K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bolivar County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (5), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bolivar County?
Bolivar County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bolivar County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $5M EAL), Drought (Medium, $942K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bolivar County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Bolivar County ranks #16 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bolivar County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Bolivar County since 1973, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bolivar County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.