Choctaw County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Choctaw County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.5, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Choctaw County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 11.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $609K in expected annual loss and about 2.64 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $145K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $117K in expected annual loss and about 14.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Choctaw County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Choctaw County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Choctaw County ranks #79 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.64 / yr | $609K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.07 / yr | $145K |
| Drought | Low | 14.52 / yr | $117K |
| Hail | Low | 3.45 / yr | $201K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $205K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $874K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.98 / yr | $46K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $593 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.89 / yr | $185K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $395K |
| Lightning | Low | 68.18 / yr | $76K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 2.74 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.75 / yr | $975K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Choctaw County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1979, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (5), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Choctaw County?
Choctaw County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Choctaw County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $609K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $145K EAL), Drought (Low, $117K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Choctaw County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Choctaw County ranks #79 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Choctaw County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Choctaw County since 1979, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Choctaw County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.