Marshall County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 24th
Marshall County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.6, 24th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Marshall County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 23.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 24th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 14.10 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $795K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $148K in expected annual loss and about 20.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marshall County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Marshall County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 19 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Marshall County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 14.10 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $795K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 20.79 / yr | $148K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 21.54 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 2.85 / yr | $368K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.32 / yr | $101K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.36 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $330 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.54 / yr | $203K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $250K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.97 / yr | $30K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 26.63 / yr | $37K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marshall County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (19), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marshall County?
Marshall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 24th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marshall County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $795K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $148K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marshall County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Marshall County ranks #63 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marshall County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Marshall County since 1965, most often 19 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marshall County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.