Tuscola County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Tuscola County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.1, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Tuscola County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.05 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $353K in expected annual loss and about 11.74 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 3.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tuscola County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Tuscola County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Tuscola County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.05 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 11.74 / yr | $353K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.00 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $16M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.82 / yr | $185K |
| Hail | Low | 2.16 / yr | $436K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $59K |
| Lightning | Low | 30.79 / yr | $196K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.05 / yr | $240K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $699 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $88K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $6K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tuscola County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| July 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 1986 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| September 1985 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1976 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tuscola County?
Tuscola County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tuscola County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $353K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tuscola County compare to other Michigan counties?
Tuscola County ranks #18 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tuscola County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Tuscola County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tuscola County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.