Saginaw County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Saginaw County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.5, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $72M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Saginaw County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Saginaw County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.05 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 4.39 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 2.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $72M in expected annual loss for a population of 190K.
Beyond physical exposure, Saginaw County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Saginaw County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Saginaw County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 11.05 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.39 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.89 / yr | $11M |
| Tornado | High | 0.34 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $43M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.31 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.26 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.91 / yr | $287K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $431K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $73K |
| Lightning | Low | 32.15 / yr | $198K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $333 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Saginaw County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Dam/Levee Break | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Saginaw County?
Saginaw County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Saginaw County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Saginaw County compare to other Michigan counties?
Saginaw County ranks #7 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Saginaw County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Saginaw County since 1973, most often 6 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Saginaw County's $72M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.