Leelanau County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Leelanau County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.3, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Leelanau County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $419K in expected annual loss and about 34.53 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $15K in expected annual loss and about 0.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Leelanau County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Leelanau County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Leelanau County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.79 / yr | $9M |
| Winter Weather | High | 34.53 / yr | $419K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.29 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.25 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Low | 0.60 / yr | $176K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Low | 23.99 / yr | $114K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.67 / yr | $243K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $222K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $48K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Leelanau County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Snowstorm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Leelanau County?
Leelanau County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Leelanau County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $9M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $419K EAL), Landslide (Low, $15K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Leelanau County compare to other Michigan counties?
Leelanau County ranks #44 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Leelanau County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Leelanau County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Leelanau County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.