Grand Traverse County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Grand Traverse County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.6, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Grand Traverse County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 30.84 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $16K in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 95K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grand Traverse County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Grand Traverse County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Grand Traverse County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 30.84 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.89 / yr | $16M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $16K |
| Lightning | Medium | 25.78 / yr | $550K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $862K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Low | 0.79 / yr | $373K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.07 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $204K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grand Traverse County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (1), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grand Traverse County?
Grand Traverse County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grand Traverse County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Landslide (Low, $16K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grand Traverse County compare to other Michigan counties?
Grand Traverse County ranks #29 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grand Traverse County had?
FEMA records 6 federal disaster declarations for Grand Traverse County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grand Traverse County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.