Alpena County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Alpena County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.3, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Alpena County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 28.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.95 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $131K in expected annual loss and about 23.87 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Alpena County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Alpena County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Alpena County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.95 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.07 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | Low | 23.87 / yr | $131K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.72 / yr | $82K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $153 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $274K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $70K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 17.16 / yr | $9K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $7K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.59 / yr | $88K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Alpena County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (1), Severe Ice Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2025 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alpena County?
Alpena County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Alpena County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Low, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $5M EAL), Lightning (Low, $131K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Alpena County compare to other Michigan counties?
Alpena County ranks #58 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Alpena County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Alpena County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alpena County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.