Worcester County, Massachusetts Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Worcester County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.5, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $163M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Worcester County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 2.99 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $37M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $163M in expected annual loss for a population of 862K.
Beyond physical exposure, Worcester County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Worcester County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1985, including 8 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 14 Massachusetts counties, Worcester County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 2.99 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.26 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.13 / yr | $37M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.75 / yr | $90M |
| Lightning | High | 22.50 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.61 / yr | $109K |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.36 / yr | $10M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.36 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.38 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.60 / yr | $925K |
| Drought | Medium | 4.28 / yr | $704K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 19.30 / yr | $122K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $116K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Worcester County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1985, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (7), Snowstorm (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| April 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| January 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Worcester County?
Worcester County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Worcester County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL), Hurricane (High, $37M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Worcester County compare to other Massachusetts counties?
Worcester County ranks #4 of 14 Massachusetts counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Worcester County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Worcester County since 1985, most often 8 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Worcester County's $163M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.