Caroline County, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Caroline County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.7, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Caroline County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.19 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.12 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $765K in expected annual loss and about 4.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caroline County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Caroline County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for snowstorm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Caroline County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 4.19 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.12 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.12 / yr | $765K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.47 / yr | $90K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $97K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.58 / yr | $459K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.66 / yr | $198K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $275K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.79 / yr | $787K |
| Lightning | Low | 35.37 / yr | $160K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.45 / yr | $42K |
| Hail | Low | 1.57 / yr | $125K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $295K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $60 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caroline County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (7), Hurricane (7), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caroline County?
Caroline County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caroline County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $5M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $765K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caroline County compare to other Maryland counties?
Caroline County ranks #17 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caroline County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Caroline County since 1972, most often 7 for snowstorm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caroline County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.