Penobscot County, Maine Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ME
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Penobscot County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.0, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Penobscot County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 25.79 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 15.72 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 152K.
Beyond physical exposure, Penobscot County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Penobscot County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 6 for flood events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in January 2024.
Among 16 Maine counties, Penobscot County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 25.79 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.55 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 15.72 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $24M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.97 / yr | $6K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.47 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 4.63 / yr | $304K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.90 / yr | $711K |
| Hail | Low | 0.45 / yr | $280K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $324 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 10.59 / yr | $22K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.13 / yr | $202K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $627K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Penobscot County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storm and Flooding in January 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Snowstorm (6), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| May 2008 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| March 2005 | Snowstorm | Record and/Or Near Record Snow |
| January 2004 | Snowstorm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Penobscot County?
Penobscot County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Penobscot County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Penobscot County compare to other Maine counties?
Penobscot County ranks #3 of 16 Maine counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Penobscot County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Penobscot County since 1970, most often 6 for flood events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding, declared in January 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Penobscot County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.