Aroostook County, Maine Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ME
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Aroostook County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.4, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Aroostook County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 29.67 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 9.11 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 67K.
Beyond physical exposure, Aroostook County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Aroostook County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 9 for snowstorm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee (hurricane), declared in September 2023.
Among 16 Maine counties, Aroostook County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 29.67 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 9.11 / yr | $15M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.06 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 2.32 / yr | $13K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.25 / yr | $14M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.12 / yr | $165K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.70 / yr | $498K |
| Lightning | Low | 16.60 / yr | $206K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $277 |
| Drought | Low | 1.71 / yr | $68K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $86K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $125K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $28K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Aroostook County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Hurricane Lee in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (9), Flood (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2008 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2006 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Snow Melt, and Ice Jams |
| April 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| March 2005 | Snowstorm | Record and/Or Near Record Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Aroostook County?
Aroostook County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Aroostook County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $15M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Aroostook County compare to other Maine counties?
Aroostook County ranks #2 of 16 Maine counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Aroostook County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Aroostook County since 1970, most often 9 for snowstorm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Aroostook County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.