Lincoln County, Maine Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ME
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 32th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.8, 32th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 31.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 32nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $450K in expected annual loss and about 16.23 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $996K in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in March 2024.
Among 16 Maine counties, Lincoln County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 16.23 / yr | $450K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.35 / yr | $996K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $3M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 8.48 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 15.03 / yr | $332K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $246K |
| Drought | Low | 3.23 / yr | $35K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.92 / yr | $117K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.57 / yr | $321K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $150K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $147K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.99 / yr | $35K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in March 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (9), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Irene |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| January 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 32th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $450K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $996K EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Maine counties?
Lincoln County ranks #14 of 16 Maine counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1970, most often 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in March 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.