Lincoln County, Maine Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ME

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

31.8

National percentile: 32th

Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.8, 32th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 31.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 32nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $450K in expected annual loss and about 16.23 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $996K in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.

Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in March 2024.

Among 16 Maine counties, Lincoln County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $11M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 35K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $450K/yr
High $996K/yr
Medium $3M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Winter Weather High 16.23 / yr$450K
Ice Storm High 1.35 / yr$996K
Hurricane Medium 0.10 / yr$3M
Coastal Flood Medium 8.48 / yr$1M
Lightning Medium 15.03 / yr$332K
Landslide Very Low 0.25 / yr$2K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$246K
Drought Low 3.23 / yr$35K
Hail Very Low 0.92 / yr$117K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.64 / yr$4M
Cold Wave Low 1.57 / yr$321K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$7K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.42 / yr$150K
Tornado Very Low 0.04 / yr$147K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.99 / yr$35K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Lincoln County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in March 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (9), Hurricane (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2024Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
September 2023HurricaneHurricane Lee
July 2023FloodSevere Storm and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
January 2018Severe StormSevere Storm and Flooding
September 2011HurricaneTropical Storm Irene
March 2010Severe StormSevere Winter Storm
July 2009Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, and Landslides
January 2009Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?

Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 32th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $450K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $996K EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Lincoln County compare to other Maine counties?

Lincoln County ranks #14 of 16 Maine counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?

FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1970, most often 9 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in March 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.