Graves County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Graves County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.0, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Graves County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 84.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.61 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.62 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 37K.
Beyond physical exposure, Graves County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Graves County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Graves County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $23M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.61 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.62 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 8.33 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.58 / yr | $196K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.42 / yr | $881K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.64 / yr | $436K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.49 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.84 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Low | 2.82 / yr | $289K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.29 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $49K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Graves County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (4), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Graves County?
Graves County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Graves County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $23M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Graves County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Graves County ranks #8 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Graves County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Graves County since 1975, most often 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Graves County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.