Caldwell County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Caldwell County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.0, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Caldwell County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $665K in expected annual loss and about 1.57 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $450K in expected annual loss and about 6.40 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caldwell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Caldwell County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Caldwell County ranks #66 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.57 / yr | $665K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 6.40 / yr | $450K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.35 / yr | $623K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.29 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.84 / yr | $320K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.11 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Low | 2.88 / yr | $150K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $442K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.81 / yr | $92K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.04 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.51 / yr | $194 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caldwell County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caldwell County?
Caldwell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caldwell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $665K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $450K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caldwell County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Caldwell County ranks #66 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caldwell County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Caldwell County since 1989, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caldwell County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.