Ellis County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Ellis County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 32.7, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Ellis County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 32.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.39 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $365K in expected annual loss and about 11.32 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $547K in expected annual loss and about 0.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ellis County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Ellis County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 9 for severe storm events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 105 Kansas counties, Ellis County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 9.39 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.32 / yr | $365K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.65 / yr | $547K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 45.35 / yr | $654K |
| Drought | Low | 50.89 / yr | $456K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $133K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.98 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.79 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.43 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $57K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 4.95 / yr | $68K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $60 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ellis County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Snowstorm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires |
| May 2022 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2013 | Snowstorm | Snowstorm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| July 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
| February 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ellis County?
Ellis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 32.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ellis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $365K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $547K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ellis County compare to other Kansas counties?
Ellis County ranks #39 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ellis County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Ellis County since 1993, most often 9 for severe storm events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ellis County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.