Pawnee County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 32th
Pawnee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.6, 32th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Pawnee County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 31.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 32nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 64.60 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.42 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pawnee County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Pawnee County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 18 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 105 Kansas counties, Pawnee County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 64.60 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 11.42 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.37 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.75 / yr | $162K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.96 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $66K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.71 / yr | $530K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.63 / yr | $38K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 4.84 / yr | $37K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 46.18 / yr | $34K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $6 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pawnee County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Flood (3), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires |
| September 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2022 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding,Landslides,and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pawnee County?
Pawnee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 32th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pawnee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pawnee County compare to other Kansas counties?
Pawnee County ranks #41 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pawnee County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Pawnee County since 1965, most often 18 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pawnee County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.