Jay County, Indiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Jay County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.9, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jay County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.28 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $379K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $582K in expected annual loss and about 4.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jay County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Jay County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 92 Indiana counties, Jay County ranks #74 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Low | 0.28 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $379K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.24 / yr | $582K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.72 / yr | $64K |
| Hail | Low | 4.00 / yr | $178K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $26K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.54 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.68 / yr | $324K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $161 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 43.09 / yr | $59K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.05 / yr | $14K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.05 / yr | $42K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jay County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jay County?
Jay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Low, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $379K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $582K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jay County compare to other Indiana counties?
Jay County ranks #74 of 92 Indiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jay County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Jay County since 1977, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jay County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.