Macon County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Macon County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.3, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $47M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Macon County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 3.21 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 7.32 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $47M in expected annual loss for a population of 104K.
Beyond physical exposure, Macon County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Macon County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 2 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Macon County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.21 / yr | $8M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.32 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.04 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.65 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.16 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $21M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.58 / yr | $177K |
| Lightning | Medium | 47.63 / yr | $574K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.44 / yr | $167K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $23K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Macon County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (2), Biological (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| April 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 1979 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| June 1974 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Macon County?
Macon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Macon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Macon County compare to other Illinois counties?
Macon County ranks #20 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Macon County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Macon County since 1974, most often 2 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Macon County's $47M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.