Lawrence County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.2, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lawrence County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 49.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lawrence County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.48 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Lawrence County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1996, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Lawrence County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 4.48 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.00 / yr | $451K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.53 / yr | $54K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.25 / yr | $937K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $842 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.13 / yr | $412K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.37 / yr | $486K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.44 / yr | $38K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.84 / yr | $115K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.20 / yr | $92K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $199 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1996, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Snowstorm | Record/Near Record Snow |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Illinois counties?
Lawrence County ranks #59 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1996, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.