Fayette County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Fayette County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.8, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Fayette County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 48.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $624K in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fayette County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Fayette County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2002, including 3 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (tornado), declared in December 2021.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Fayette County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $624K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.43 / yr | $8K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.95 / yr | $920K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.79 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.11 / yr | $675K |
| Hail | Low | 3.59 / yr | $325K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.64 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.92 / yr | $62K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $35K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.18 / yr | $166K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.79 / yr | $44K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fayette County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2002, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in December 2021. Most frequent causes: Tornado (3), Biological (2), Snowstorm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fayette County?
Fayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Drought (Medium, $624K EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fayette County compare to other Illinois counties?
Fayette County ranks #61 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fayette County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Fayette County since 2002, most often 3 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in December 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fayette County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.