Douglas County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Douglas County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.1, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Douglas County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 62.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Douglas County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 2.66 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Douglas County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Douglas County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 2.66 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.24 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.74 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.63 / yr | $88K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $8M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.95 / yr | $384K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.37 / yr | $979K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $24K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.99 / yr | $115K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $198 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.94 / yr | $21K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $5M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Illinois counties?
Douglas County ranks #43 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1990, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.