Bureau County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Bureau County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.3, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Bureau County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 62.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.00 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $885K in expected annual loss and about 3.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bureau County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Bureau County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for flood events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Bureau County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 9.00 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.86 / yr | $885K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.86 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.11 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $4K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.86 / yr | $10M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $139K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.53 / yr | $339K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.79 / yr | $51K |
| Lightning | Low | 43.13 / yr | $139K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bureau County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2006 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bureau County?
Bureau County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bureau County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Hail (Medium, $885K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bureau County compare to other Illinois counties?
Bureau County ranks #42 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bureau County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Bureau County since 1973, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bureau County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.