Valley County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Valley County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.6, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Valley County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 55.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $214K in expected annual loss and about 4.25 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $913K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Valley County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Valley County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1997, including 5 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Four Corners Fire (fire), declared in August 2022.
Among 44 Idaho counties, Valley County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $9M |
| Landslide | Medium | 4.25 / yr | $214K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $913K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $676K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 20.03 / yr | $92K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $8M |
| Lightning | Low | 24.89 / yr | $102K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $50K |
| Drought | Very Low | 23.54 / yr | $12 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $52K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $24K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $14K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $11K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Valley County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1997, most recently Four Corners Fire in August 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2022 | Fire | Four Corners Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2010 | Fire | Hurd Fire |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2007 | Fire | Cascade Fire Complex |
| August 2007 | Fire | East Zone Fire Complex |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Valley County?
Valley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Valley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $9M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $214K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $913K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Valley County compare to other Idaho counties?
Valley County ranks #12 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Valley County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Valley County since 1997, most often 5 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Four Corners Fire, declared in August 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Valley County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.