Maui County, Hawaii Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · HI
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Maui County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.1, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by volcanic activity and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $132M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Maui County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $33M in expected annual loss and about 0.04 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $132M in expected annual loss for a population of 165K.
Beyond physical exposure, Maui County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Maui County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 10 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (flood), declared in April 2026.
Among 5 Hawaii counties, Maui County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Volcanic Activity | High | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.04 / yr | $33M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.32 / yr | $59M |
| Lightning | High | 55.83 / yr | $2M |
| Tsunami | High | 0.66 / yr | $31M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $553K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.71 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.75 / yr | $246K |
| Drought | Very Low | 44.81 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $25K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $168 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Maui County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (10), Flood (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2025 | Fire | Holomua Fire |
| August 2023 | Fire | Wildfires and High Winds |
| August 2023 | Fire | Lahaina Fire |
| August 2023 | Fire | Pulehu Fire |
| August 2023 | Fire | Upcountry Fire |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| May 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Douglas |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Maui County?
Maui County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Maui County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Volcanic Activity (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $33M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Maui County compare to other Hawaii counties?
Maui County ranks #3 of 5 Hawaii counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Maui County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Maui County since 1968, most often 10 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Maui County's $132M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.