Honolulu County, Hawaii Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · HI
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Honolulu County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.8, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $517M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Honolulu County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 98.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 76.82 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Very High risk — $330M in expected annual loss and about 5.93 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $517M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.01M.
Beyond physical exposure, Honolulu County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Honolulu County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 6 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (flood), declared in April 2026.
Among 5 Hawaii counties, Honolulu County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 76.82 / yr | $13M |
| Landslide | High | 0.32 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 5.93 / yr | $330M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $27M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.01 / yr | $93M |
| Tsunami | High | 0.66 / yr | $48M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 0.35 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $880K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $159K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.02 / yr | $688K |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.96 / yr | $147 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $64K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Honolulu County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Fire (4), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2025 | Fire | Kunia Road Fire |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Douglas |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Olivia |
| August 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lane |
| May 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2011 | Tsunami | Tsunami Waves |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Honolulu County?
Honolulu County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.8 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Honolulu County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $13M EAL), Landslide (High, $4M EAL), Riverine Flood (Very High, $330M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Honolulu County compare to other Hawaii counties?
Honolulu County ranks #1 of 5 Hawaii counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Honolulu County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Honolulu County since 1974, most often 6 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Honolulu County's $517M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.