Forsyth County, Georgia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · GA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Forsyth County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.1, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $90M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Forsyth County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $58M in expected annual loss and about 0.96 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.48 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $90M in expected annual loss for a population of 251K.
Beyond physical exposure, Forsyth County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Forsyth County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 6 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 159 Georgia counties, Forsyth County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.14 / yr | $16M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $58M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.48 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 59.78 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $5M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.98 / yr | $599K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.49 / yr | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.64 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.79 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $192K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $65K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.47 / yr | $40K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 32.88 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Forsyth County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Biological (2), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| January 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Zeta |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Forsyth County?
Forsyth County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Forsyth County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $16M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $58M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Forsyth County compare to other Georgia counties?
Forsyth County ranks #8 of 159 Georgia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Forsyth County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Forsyth County since 1974, most often 6 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Forsyth County's $90M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.