Pasco County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Pasco County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.0, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $199M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pasco County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 96.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pasco County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 0.91 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $78M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 94.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $199M in expected annual loss for a population of 562K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pasco County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pasco County has received 44 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 21 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Pasco County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.91 / yr | $28M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.26 / yr | $78M |
| Lightning | Very High | 94.43 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.75 / yr | $76M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 3.69 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.86 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.94 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.21 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $203K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $922 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.92 / yr | $116K |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pasco County has received 44 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (21), Severe Storm (6), Tropical Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 44 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pasco County?
Pasco County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pasco County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $28M EAL), Hurricane (Very High, $78M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pasco County compare to other Florida counties?
Pasco County ranks #16 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pasco County had?
FEMA records 44 federal disaster declarations for Pasco County since 1968, most often 21 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pasco County's $199M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.