Orange County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Orange County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.4, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $418M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Orange County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $33M in expected annual loss and about 1.08 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 88.08 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $48M in expected annual loss and about 3.87 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $418M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.43M.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Orange County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 19 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Orange County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 1.08 / yr | $33M |
| Lightning | Very High | 88.08 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Very High | 3.87 / yr | $48M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.78 / yr | $45M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 0.36 / yr | $182M |
| Hail | High | 2.21 / yr | $7M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.25 / yr | $80M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.95 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 15.40 / yr | $40K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (19), Fire (5), Freezing (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $33M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $6M EAL), Cold Wave (Very High, $48M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other Florida counties?
Orange County ranks #8 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1977, most often 19 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $418M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.