Collier County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Collier County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.9, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $398M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Collier County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Collier County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $216M in expected annual loss and about 0.29 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 104.56 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $34M in expected annual loss and about 2.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $398M in expected annual loss for a population of 375K.
Beyond physical exposure, Collier County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Collier County has received 54 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 25 for hurricane events and 9 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Collier County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.29 / yr | $216M |
| Lightning | Very High | 104.56 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Very High | 2.12 / yr | $34M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.04 / yr | $124M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Coastal Flood | Very High | 3.30 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.23 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.21 / yr | $4K |
| Drought | Medium | 12.14 / yr | $297K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.63 / yr | $437K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $106K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Collier County has received 54 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (25), Fire (9), Severe Storm (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 54 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Collier County?
Collier County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Collier County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very High, $216M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL), Cold Wave (Very High, $34M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Collier County compare to other Florida counties?
Collier County ranks #5 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Collier County had?
FEMA records 54 federal disaster declarations for Collier County since 1965, most often 25 for hurricane events and 9 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Collier County's $398M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.