South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CT
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
South Central Connecticut Planning Region faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.1, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $174M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in South Central Connecticut Planning Region is high, with a National Risk Index score of 95.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 95th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of South Central Connecticut Planning Region's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $37M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $108M in expected annual loss and about 3.25 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.97 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $174M in expected annual loss for a population of 570K.
Beyond physical exposure, South Central Connecticut Planning Region has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
Among 9 Connecticut counties, South Central Connecticut Planning Region ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.17 / yr | $37M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.25 / yr | $108M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.97 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 4.96 / yr | $9M |
| Lightning | High | 26.14 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | High | 12.85 / yr | $434K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.01 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.43 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.92 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.16 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Hail | Low | 2.27 / yr | $155K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.93 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
FEMA's declaration records (1953–present) list no county-level federal disaster declarations for South Central Connecticut Planning Region. Statewide emergency declarations may still have applied.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for South Central Connecticut Planning Region?
South Central Connecticut Planning Region has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.1 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in South Central Connecticut Planning Region?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $37M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $108M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does South Central Connecticut Planning Region compare to other Connecticut counties?
South Central Connecticut Planning Region ranks #3 of 9 Connecticut counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has South Central Connecticut Planning Region had?
FEMA's declaration records (1953–present) list no county-level major disaster declarations for South Central Connecticut Planning Region. Statewide emergency declarations may still have applied.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. South Central Connecticut Planning Region's $174M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.