Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Connecticut Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CT
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.8, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $63M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $49M in expected annual loss and about 2.25 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.20 events per year; and coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.76 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $63M in expected annual loss for a population of 174K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
Among 9 Connecticut counties, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.25 / yr | $49M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.20 / yr | $7M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.76 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.67 / yr | $309K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.39 / yr | $9K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.25 / yr | $131K |
| Lightning | Medium | 24.98 / yr | $395K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.34 / yr | $739K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.90 / yr | $311K |
| Drought | Low | 0.73 / yr | $51K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.92 / yr | $525K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.80 / yr | $44K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
FEMA's declaration records (1953–present) list no county-level federal disaster declarations for Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region. Statewide emergency declarations may still have applied.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?
Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $49M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $7M EAL), Coastal Flood (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region compare to other Connecticut counties?
Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region ranks #7 of 9 Connecticut counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region had?
FEMA's declaration records (1953–present) list no county-level major disaster declarations for Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region. Statewide emergency declarations may still have applied.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region's $63M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.