Mesa County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Mesa County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.1, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Mesa County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Mesa County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.96 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 51.87 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 156K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mesa County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Mesa County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Pine Gulch Fire (fire), declared in August 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Mesa County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 2.96 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very High | 51.87 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.17 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $22M |
| Drought | Medium | 91.86 / yr | $656K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 25.10 / yr | $123K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.33 / yr | $568K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.02 / yr | $445K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $78K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $199K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $81K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mesa County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Pine Gulch Fire in August 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2020 | Fire | Pine Gulch Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2002 | Fire | Co - Dierich Fire - 06/10/02 |
| July 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mesa County?
Mesa County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mesa County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mesa County compare to other Colorado counties?
Mesa County ranks #13 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mesa County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Mesa County since 1977, most often 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Pine Gulch Fire, declared in August 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mesa County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.