Garfield County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Garfield County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.5, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Garfield County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 64.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Garfield County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.91 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 62K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garfield County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Garfield County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 7 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Grizzly Creek Fire (fire), declared in August 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Garfield County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 3.91 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | High | 1.33 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 55.83 / yr | $986K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.68 / yr | $21M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $626K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18 |
| Drought | Low | 66.90 / yr | $105K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $234K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $126K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 35.34 / yr | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $86K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $36K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $68K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garfield County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Grizzly Creek Fire in August 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2020 | Fire | Grizzly Creek Fire |
| August 2020 | Fire | Pine Gulch Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2007 | Fire | Newcastle Fire |
| September 2006 | Fire | Red Apple Fire |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2002 | Fire | Co - Panorama Fire - 07/31/02 |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2002 | Fire | Coal Seam Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garfield County?
Garfield County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garfield County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garfield County compare to other Colorado counties?
Garfield County ranks #15 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garfield County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Garfield County since 1977, most often 7 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Grizzly Creek Fire, declared in August 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garfield County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.