Eagle County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
Eagle County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.2, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $48M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Eagle County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.23 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $209K in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 55.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $48M in expected annual loss for a population of 56K.
Beyond physical exposure, Eagle County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Eagle County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Grizzly Creek Fire (fire), declared in August 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Eagle County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 1.23 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $209K |
| Lightning | High | 55.89 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.14 / yr | $39M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $370K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 47.54 / yr | $217K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $443K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $170K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Drought | Very Low | 44.97 / yr | $18K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $178K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $120K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Eagle County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Grizzly Creek Fire in August 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2020 | Fire | Grizzly Creek Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2018 | Fire | Lake Christine Fire |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2002 | Fire | Co - Panorama Fire - 07/31/02 |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Eagle County?
Eagle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Eagle County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $6M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $209K EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Eagle County compare to other Colorado counties?
Eagle County ranks #11 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Eagle County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Eagle County since 1977, most often 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Grizzly Creek Fire, declared in August 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Eagle County's $48M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.