Douglas County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Douglas County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.7, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $114M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Douglas County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 88.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 58.57 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 7.46 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $114M in expected annual loss for a population of 358K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Douglas County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (flood), declared in August 2023.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Douglas County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 58.57 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | High | 7.46 / yr | $13M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $26M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 18.04 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.75 / yr | $14M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.03 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $44M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.86 / yr | $20K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $85 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $779K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.24 / yr | $702K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $90K |
| Drought | Low | 23.77 / yr | $57K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Fire (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2003 | Fire | Co - Cherokee Ranch Wildfire - 10/29/2003 |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2002 | Fire | Co - Schoonover Fire - 05/23/02 |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $8M EAL), Hail (High, $13M EAL), Wildfire (High, $26M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Colorado counties?
Douglas County ranks #9 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1965, most often 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $114M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.