Weld County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Weld County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.2, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $105M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Weld County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 6.70 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 1.84 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 4.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $105M in expected annual loss for a population of 329K.
Beyond physical exposure, Weld County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Weld County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Weld County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 6.70 / yr | $14M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.84 / yr | $19M |
| Tornado | High | 4.20 / yr | $16M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.40 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.29 / yr | $762K |
| Lightning | High | 51.16 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $44M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $482K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $53 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.62 / yr | $775K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $960 |
| Drought | Low | 38.53 / yr | $75K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Weld County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| May 1999 | Severe Storm | Co-Flooding 4/30/99 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Weld County?
Weld County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Weld County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $14M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $19M EAL), Tornado (High, $16M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Weld County compare to other Colorado counties?
Weld County ranks #8 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Weld County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Weld County since 1965, most often 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Weld County's $105M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.