Shasta County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Shasta County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.4, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $135M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Shasta County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $72M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $135M in expected annual loss for a population of 182K.
Beyond physical exposure, Shasta County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Shasta County has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 22 for fire events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2023.
Among 58 California counties, Shasta County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $35M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $24M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.00 / yr | $72M |
| Volcanic Activity | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $245K |
| Landslide | Medium | 6.43 / yr | $78K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 76.70 / yr | $720K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 20.88 / yr | $131K |
| Lightning | Medium | 14.19 / yr | $432K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $273 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $58K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $149K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $57K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Shasta County has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Fire (22), Severe Storm (7), Flood (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2021 | Fire | Fawn Fire |
| October 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Zogg Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2018 | Fire | Wildfires and High Winds |
| July 2018 | Fire | Wildfire |
| July 2018 | Fire | Carr Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 41 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shasta County?
Shasta County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shasta County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $35M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $24M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $72M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shasta County compare to other California counties?
Shasta County ranks #33 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Shasta County had?
FEMA records 41 federal disaster declarations for Shasta County since 1964, most often 22 for fire events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shasta County's $135M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.