Butte County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Butte County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.9, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $127M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Butte County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 66.57 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $388K in expected annual loss and about 20.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $127M in expected annual loss for a population of 211K.
Beyond physical exposure, Butte County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Butte County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 17 for fire events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Park Fire (fire), declared in July 2024.
Among 58 California counties, Butte County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 66.57 / yr | $26M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $16M |
| Landslide | Medium | 20.96 / yr | $388K |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.04 / yr | $34M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $48M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.93 / yr | $1M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $392 |
| Lightning | Medium | 11.89 / yr | $400K |
| Hail | Low | 0.11 / yr | $121K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.15 / yr | $389K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $76 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.95 / yr | $21K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $81K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Butte County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Park Fire in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (17), Severe Storm (9), Flood (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Fire | Park Fire |
| July 2024 | Fire | Thompson Fire |
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Bear Fire |
| August 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Butte County?
Butte County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Butte County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $26M EAL), Wildfire (High, $16M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $388K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Butte County compare to other California counties?
Butte County ranks #32 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Butte County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Butte County since 1964, most often 17 for fire events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Park Fire, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Butte County's $127M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.