Lake County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Lake County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.0, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $101M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lake County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lake County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $872K in expected annual loss and about 93.97 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $101M in expected annual loss for a population of 68K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lake County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 15 for fire events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Boyles Fire (fire), declared in September 2024.
Among 58 California counties, Lake County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $20M |
| Landslide | High | 93.97 / yr | $872K |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.09 / yr | $24M |
| Volcanic Activity | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $484K |
| Drought | High | 59.84 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 0.50 / yr | $51M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.13 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.75 / yr | $329K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.75 / yr | $20K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 5.39 / yr | $59K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $60K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Boyles Fire in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (15), Severe Storm (9), Flood (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Fire | Boyles Fire |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2021 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2020 | Fire | Lnu Lightning Fire Complex |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake County?
Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $20M EAL), Landslide (High, $872K EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $24M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake County compare to other California counties?
Lake County ranks #35 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Lake County since 1964, most often 15 for fire events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Boyles Fire, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake County's $101M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.