Madera County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Madera County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.4, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $162M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Madera County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $63M in expected annual loss and about 84.81 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 6.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $162M in expected annual loss for a population of 156K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madera County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Madera County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2023.
Among 58 California counties, Madera County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 84.81 / yr | $63M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $23M |
| Heat Wave | High | 6.60 / yr | $9M |
| Landslide | Medium | 28.58 / yr | $353K |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $20M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.43 / yr | $45M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $512K |
| Lightning | Medium | 15.59 / yr | $382K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.93 / yr | $85K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $33 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $107 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.05 / yr | $130K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $156K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madera County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Flood (6), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| October 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Creek Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2017 | Fire | Mission Fire |
| September 2017 | Fire | Railroad Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madera County?
Madera County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madera County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $63M EAL), Wildfire (High, $23M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $9M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madera County compare to other California counties?
Madera County ranks #26 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madera County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Madera County since 1969, most often 7 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madera County's $162M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.