Scott County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

26.8

National percentile: 27th

Scott County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.8, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Scott County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $584K in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $124K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.

Beyond physical exposure, Scott County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

History supports the rating: Scott County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 75 Arkansas counties, Scott County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $8M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 10K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $584K/yr
Low $124K/yr
Very Low $2K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm High 0.94 / yr$584K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$124K
Landslide Very Low 1.28 / yr$2K
Heat Wave Low 15.38 / yr$320K
Riverine Flood Low 1.75 / yr$5M
Tornado Low 0.59 / yr$824K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$139K
Winter Weather Low 5.74 / yr$35K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$18K
Lightning Low 62.99 / yr$103K
Strong Wind Low 4.24 / yr$273K
Hail Very Low 5.65 / yr$94K
Cold Wave Low 1.11 / yr$324K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 21.52 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Scott County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2025FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2020HurricaneHurricane Laura
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
February 2016Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
January 2014Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
June 2013Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scott County?

Scott County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Scott County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $584K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $124K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Scott County compare to other Arkansas counties?

Scott County ranks #69 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Scott County had?

FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Scott County since 1968, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scott County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.