Newton County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 18th
Newton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.4, 18th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Newton County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 18.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 18th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $540K in expected annual loss and about 58.18 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $299K in expected annual loss and about 1.98 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 2.51 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Newton County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Newton County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Newton County ranks #71 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 58.18 / yr | $540K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.98 / yr | $299K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.51 / yr | $12K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.53 / yr | $760K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.32 / yr | $432K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.82 / yr | $117K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.14 / yr | $217K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.32 / yr | $21K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.14 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.71 / yr | $33K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 11.40 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Newton County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Newton County?
Newton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 18th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Newton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $540K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $299K EAL), Landslide (Low, $12K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Newton County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Newton County ranks #71 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Newton County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Newton County since 1969, most often 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Newton County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.