Cleveland County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 9th
Cleveland County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 9.5, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Cleveland County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 9.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cleveland County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $178K in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $335K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $262K in expected annual loss and about 19.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cleveland County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Cleveland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Cleveland County ranks #74 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.07 / yr | $178K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $335K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 19.47 / yr | $262K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $51K |
| Hail | Low | 3.81 / yr | $113K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.39 / yr | $548K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.63 / yr | $222K |
| Lightning | Low | 63.12 / yr | $59K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Drought | Very Low | 8.47 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.84 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.21 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $18 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.53 / yr | $26K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cleveland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Hurricane (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cleveland County?
Cleveland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 9.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cleveland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Medium, $178K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $335K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $262K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cleveland County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Cleveland County ranks #74 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cleveland County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Cleveland County since 1973, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cleveland County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.