Greenlee County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Greenlee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 12.4, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Greenlee County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 12.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $531K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $653K in expected annual loss and about 65.84 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $3K in expected annual loss and about 1.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Greenlee County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Greenlee County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Greenlee County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $531K |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.84 / yr | $653K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.74 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.07 / yr | $589K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $332 |
| Drought | Low | 84.39 / yr | $31K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.93 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.05 / yr | $28K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $630 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $4K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $849 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Greenlee County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Fire | Wallow Fire |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| October 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| December 1978 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Greenlee County?
Greenlee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 12.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Greenlee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $531K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $653K EAL), Landslide (Low, $3K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Greenlee County compare to other Arizona counties?
Greenlee County ranks #15 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Greenlee County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Greenlee County since 1966, most often 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Greenlee County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.